06 and 12Z GFS runs develop a surface closed low Of wintry precip, but has wavered on where and when (so. Warm, moist advection off the Gulf and the wedge.
Is that each solution has difficulty resolving the interplay between Potential for another winter weather event this weekend. The only real consensus being that it looks like there is the The jury is out on what becomes of the front beyond Thursday, with Temperatures below freezing as the cold airmass settles in, chancesįor a wintry mix of precipitation filter in on the backside of the That a cold front will slip into northwest Georgia beginning late Remain true in the extended, with global models in good agreement We're in the midst of a very progressive wave train, and that will National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
So, all of that tells me a major snow is on this model for places like Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Florence, Charlotte, RDU, and most of E NC and a ZR to IP to SN for much of E SC/SE GA with the most ZR/IP closer to the SC/upper GA coast: at hour 96 but all cool to below 0C by hour 120.
View attachment 107369 View attachment 107370Ĩ50s on coast are +6 C SAV to 0C NC OB near the start of the heaviest precip. So, all of that tells me a major snow is on this model for places like Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Florence, Charlotte, Fayetteville, RDU, and most of E NC and a ZR to IP to SN for much of E SC/SE GA with the most ZR/IP closer to the SC/upper GA coast:īut again, this model is an outlier, pretty bad, and often too far SE. Here’s hour 120 cumulative:Ĩ50s on coast are +6 C SAV to 0C NC OB near the start of the heaviest precip. I calculated that by taking 120 hour cumulative and subtracting hour 96 cumulative. Liquid equivalent for just the 24 hour period ending at hour 120 is ~1” for upper GA to NC coast. This track would be near ideal for coastal areas as well as somewhat inland: Track of surface low is significantly further SE than the better models with a track from east central GOM ENE over C FL and then well out into the Atlantic. Those even further east (like SE coast) might want what the inferior and often too far SE JMA is smoking for the first wave (mainly for entertainment as this model is pretty bad and this is an outlier so far SE): Once again, uncertainty with the evolution of shortwaves and surface lows leads to low confidence in placement of wintry precipitation and precipitation type in some locations at this time, but the current forecast shows the potential for notable snow, sleet, and freezing rain particularly in the Carolinas and southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic for the latter part of the week, with some chance of spreading into the Northeast this weekend. On the southern and eastern periphery of this high, moist air spilling into the cold air could lead to wintry weather on the northern periphery of precipitation spreading across the Gulf Coast states and then possibly up the Eastern Seaboard. This forecast approach led to a trend west of the previous WPC forecast with the surface low and frontal placement, but not nearly to the western extent of the ECMWF runs. Tended to favor a position for the surface low near the 00Z EC ensemble mean as somewhat of a compromise, which was not too far off from the 00Z CMC position, but the 12Z CMC is now showing a more suppressed pattern. The 00Z cluster analysis and ensemble member low plots showed that the GEFS and EC ensembles followed their operational runs, with GEFS members farther east than EC ensemble members. The 00Z and incoming 12Z ECMWF are generally on the western side of the model spread with these features, leading to more precipitation over the Eastern Seaboard, while the GFS runs have been suppressed farther east into the Atlantic. Snow/ice are possible along the Eastern Seaboard late this weekĪnd weekend on the eastern periphery of an Arctic high. NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
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